Proofs of correctness for fault-tolerance schemes rarely give tight constants for error correction performance. However, they do provide formal reasoning that a scheme is correct and all the pieces fit together in the appropriate way. The combination of a proof and simulations could be said to be the gold standard for a fault-tolerance scheme.
A threshold for memory was shown in the well known paper by Dennis-Kitaev-Landahl-Preskill, but, as far as I can tell, there has not been a published threshold theorem for universal fault-tolerant computation using surface codes.
Fixing the scheme to be the usual lattice surgery + magic state distillation and considering circuit-level depolarizing noise, I am satisfied that a threshold for the lattice surgery steps nearly immediately follows from the usual LDPC threshold techniques by Kovalev-Pryadko and Gottesman.
However, in order to perform magic state distillation, we need a way of performing state injection. That is, for an arbitrary state $|\psi\rangle$, to prepare a logical state $\rho$ of a distance-$d$ surface code such that it is correctable to $|\bar{\psi} \rangle$ with probability at least $1-\epsilon$** as $d \to \infty$. There is a gadget that appears to have these properties numerically in Li's paper, but I believe it was not formally argued.
Is there a known formal proof in the literature of the existence of such a gadget?
** $\epsilon$ should be a small constant like $1/100$ such that we can use magic state distillation.