Consider a 2 qubit system in the initial state:
$$ \begin{pmatrix} 0 \\ \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} \\ -\frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} \\ 0 \end{pmatrix} $$
the so-called Bell-pair. Now let's measure the spin of the first qubit along Pauli "$X$ direction". Pauli $X$ matrix is defined here for reference. To do this we will construct the matrix $I \otimes X$ as explained here (or you can do $X \otimes I$ which will measure the spin of the other qubit; whether you do $I \otimes X$ or $X \otimes I$ is irrelevant to the point I am going to make in the question).
$I \otimes X$ equals
$$ \begin{pmatrix} 0 & 0 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 0 & 1 \\ 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 \end{pmatrix} $$
Now to simulate the measurement, we need to perform a eigenvalue decomposition of this matrix which is given by:
$$ \begin{pmatrix} -\frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 \\ 0 & -\frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} \\ \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 \\ 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} \end{pmatrix} $$
The columns are the eigenvectors associated with eigenvalues $-1, -1, 1,$ and $1$.
Assume the measurement yielded $-1$ corresponding to the first eigenvector. (Side note for advanced readers: there are only 2 unique eigenvalues but the 4 eigenvectors are distinguishable as they are orthogonal - refer to section 2.2.4 in Nielsen and Chuang p. 86 if needed.) The wavefunction is now going to collapse to the first eigenvector which is:
$$ \begin{pmatrix} \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} \\ 0 \\ -\frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} \\ 0 \end{pmatrix} $$
and is same as equation 2.104 in Nielsen and Chuang p. 88 (side note again: the flip in sign of the eigenvector is unimportant and does not make a difference) or refer this
Now we will measure the spin of the other qubit along $X$. To do this, we create the complementary matrix $X \otimes I$ which is given by:
$$ \begin{pmatrix} 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 \\ 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 0 & 1 \\ 0 & 0 & 1 & 0 \end{pmatrix} $$
The eigenvectors of this matrix are
$$ \begin{pmatrix} -\frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 \\ \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 \\ 0 & -\frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} \\ 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} & 0 & \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2} \end{pmatrix} $$
and associated eigenvalues are once again $-1, -1, 1,$ and $1$.
Now I am interested in the probabilities of measuring these eigenvalues. The formula to do that is given by equation 2.103 in Nielsen and Chuang or one can refer to the same paragraph from lecture notes I pasted above.
The collapsed wavefunction after the first measurement can be verified to be same as:
\begin{equation} \psi' = -\frac{1}{2} q_1 + \frac{1}{2} q_2 + \frac{1}{2} q_3 -\frac{1}{2} q_4 \end{equation}
where $q_i$ are the eigenvectors of $X \otimes I$ and listed above for clarity. And so the probabilities of observing the 4 eigenvalues are given by modulus square of the coefficients above. In other words, they are all $0.25$.
and that brings me to my question. The math I have done above is nothing but a simulation of the EPR experiment. And all the books say that once the spin of the first qubit has been measured to be $-1$ it is guaranteed that the spin of the second qubit will be $+1$ but I am getting a half and half probability of the spin of the second qubit as well. What gives?
\begin{pmatrix} a & b \\ c & d \end{pmatrix}
produces $\begin{pmatrix} a& b \\ c& d \end{pmatrix}$ $\endgroup$