I want to show that if one measures $M_1$ on $|\psi\rangle$ then measures $M_2$ on the resulting state and then the associated probability space will be the same as the one for measuring the product $M_2 M_1$ on that pure state $|\psi\rangle$ (also assuming that the $M_i$ are Hermitian and commute). So in our first measurement procedure, we have two measurement operators, the first one yields,
$$p(1)=\langle \psi|M_1^\dagger M_1|\psi\rangle\tag{1}$$
and the resulting state is,
$$\frac{M_1|\psi\rangle}{\sqrt{\langle \psi|M_1^\dagger M_1|\psi\rangle}}.\tag{2}$$
If we then measure it using $M_2$ then we get,
$$p(2)=\left\langle\frac{M_1|\psi\rangle}{\sqrt{\langle \psi|M_1^\dagger M_1|\psi\rangle}} \bigg| M_2^\dagger M_2 \bigg| \frac{M_1|\psi\rangle}{\sqrt{\langle \psi|M_1^\dagger M_1|\psi\rangle}}\right\rangle.\tag{3}$$
With $M_2M_1$ we get,
$$p(1)=\langle\psi|(M_2M_1)^\dagger M_2M_1|\psi\rangle.$$
However, we only have one measurement operator here being $M_2M_1$, so how can the probability spaces be the same?