The (additive) quantum mean value problem can be defined this way:
Given any constant $\epsilon > 0$, Hermitian observables $O_1,...,O_n$, and constant depth quantum circuit $U$ on $n$ qubits, output any $\tilde{\mu}$ such that $| \tilde{\mu} - \langle0^n|U^{\dagger} (O_1 \otimes ... \otimes O_n)U |0^n \rangle| < \epsilon$.
This is very different from "guess[ing] what comes out the other side" given some set of input bits because, for example, we can have $O_i = |0\rangle\langle0|$ for all $i$, which would amount to estimating the probability of measuring $0^n$ when measuring in the computational basis at the end of the circuit. Notice how this is a different task than "guessing what comes out the other side."
For a reference take a look at this paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.11485